Home insurance premiums in the United States are up 21 percent since 2015, according to new data from LexisNexis. Some states are seeing even bigger increases. Premiums in Florida are up an average of 57 percent, and they’re up 40 percent in Texas. Meanwhile, both states have also seen relatively large population increases.
One big factor driving up insurance premiums? Climate risk.
“The states where climate tends to impact the world more strongly are seeing a bigger jump in population … We put two and two together, and it seems to be creating a perfect storm — no pun intended,” LexisNexis Risk Solutions Senior Director of Home Insurance George Hosfield tells The New York Times.
Climate risk in Florida
Florida is at relatively high risk of extreme heat and flood due to climate change over the next 30 years, according to analysis by ClimateCheck. ClimateCheck ranks the risk of five climate hazards: heat, precipitation, drought, flooding, and fire. Our 1-100 risk scale measures expected increase in hazard intensity for the location in question through 2050, relative to other locations in the contiguous U.S. and Canada.
Among the lower 48 states, Florida has the third highest risk rating for extreme heat, with a median ClimateCheck score of 96.
An extremely hot day in Florida is about 94ºF, based on historical averages. Depending on the city where they are located, a person in Florida could experience 57 to 93 extremely hot days per year by 2050 – compared to around 20 extremely hot days per year during the 20th century.
Among the lower 48 states, Florida has the fourth highest risk rating for flood, with a median risk rating of 35. The flood risk rating is as high as 60 in some places. Coastal cities face the highest risk of flood.
Some coastal cities face greater risk than others. For example, Cape Coral faces a 60 to 95 percent chance of flood in the next 30 years depending on emissions scenario, with 99 percent of buildings at risk of flooding. Port St. Lucie, by contrast, faces a 30 to 45 percent chance of flood, with 5 percent of buildings at risk of flooding.
Climate risk in Texas
Texas is at relatively high risk of extreme heat and fire due to climate change over the next 30 years, according to analysis by ClimateCheck.
Among the lower 48 states, Texas has the fourth highest risk rating for extreme heat, with a median ClimateCheck score of 96.
What counts as an extremely hot day in the expansive state of Texas depends on the exact location. An extremely hot day in Laredo is 105ºF, while in Corpus Christi, it’s 96ºF. A person in Texas could experience 43 extremely hot days per year by 2050, compared to around 10 days per year in the 20th century.
Among the lower 48 states, Texas has the fifteenth highest risk rating for fire. Fire risk varies greatly depending on the location within Texas. Factors that drive risk include the amount of and type of vegetation and area topography. On a given day, fire risk is greatly increased when heat, low humidity, and strong winds converge.
To learn more about physical climate risk in different states, cities, and even individual addresses, use ClimateCheck’s search tool. Individual risk reports are free to consumers.
ClimateCheck’s data analysts calculate climate risk for different hazards based on data from the IPCC, NOAA, NASA, USGS, and FEMA, as well as academic research and proprietary data from our partners. We leverage models including MACA downscaled global climate models, NOAA SLOSH (Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model, and CADDIES WCA2D surface flood model.