Top Climate Change Risks: Precipitation, Heat, Drought

People in New Jersey will experience especially increased risks from precipitation, heat, and drought due to climate change over the next 30 years. These risks, through 2050 and beyond, may change depending on how much we reduce emissions in the near future.

ClimateCheck Risk Ratings measure the risk posed by a hazard on a 1-100 scale, using historical conditions and projected scenarios through 2050. Climate change has complex, interacting local and large-scale effects that impact everyone on Earth, and a low risk rating does not mean no exposure to impacts from that hazard. See how we measure risk.

• For heat, Atlantic City has the lowest risk and Camden has the highest risk.
• For precipitation, Trenton has the lowest risk and Paterson has the highest risk.
• For drought, Atlantic City has the lowest risk and Middletown has the highest risk.
• For fire, Jersey City has the lowest risk and Middletown has the highest risk.
• For flood, Newark has the lowest risk and Atlantic City has the highest risk.

Rhode Island and New York rank highest for storm risk Nevada and Arizona rank lowest for storm risk

New Jersey ranks #22 for fire risk.
Highest fire risk: Oklahoma and Wyoming
Lowest fire risk: Maine and Vermont
See our fire ranking methodology.

New Jersey ranks #8 for drought risk.
Highest drought risk: Nevada and California
Lowest drought risk: Mississippi and Vermont


New Jersey ranks #29 for heat risk.
Highest heat risk: Louisiana and Mississippi
Lowest heat risk: California and Oregon


New Jersey ranks #30 for flood risk.
Highest flood risk: Arizona and West Virginia
Lowest flood risk: Utah and Nevada


To measure precipitation risk, we look at the amount of precipitation that falls in 48-hour periods exceeding a location-specific threshold, and how many times this happens per year. A precipitation threshold is based on the top 1% of rainiest days per year for a location.

Historically, Paterson experienced an average of 1.8 inches of rain about 10 times per year. In 2050, it is projected to experience an average of 1.7 inches of rain about 13 times per year.

Historically, Trenton experienced an average of 1.6 inches of rain about 11 times per year. In 2050, it is projected to experience an average of 1.6 inches of rain about 13 times per year.

Drought risk is based on water stress, which is a projection of how much of the water supply will be taken up by human demand.

In the figure, the blue bars represent the available water every 10 years from 2020-2060, and the orange bars represent demand. The drought risk rating is based on the ratio of supply to demand and the projected change in this ratio. Lower supply and higher demand correspond to a higher score.



Coastal flood hazards include storm surge, when strong winds push water to shore, and rising sea levels due to climate change. The rate of sea level rise varies along the coast. Rising seas contribute to greater instances and spread of high-tide flooding, when high tides inundate land, and greater potential storm surge depths.