Top Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation, Fire

Use this page to learn how climate change is affecting people in Texas.

Then, use our tool to check your address for local and property-specific heat, precipitation, drought, fire, and flood risk.

Climate Change Risk Ratings for Texas

People in Texas will experience especially increased risks from heat, precipitation, and fire due to climate change over the next 30 years. These risks, through 2050 and beyond, may change depending on how much we reduce emissions in the near future.

ClimateCheck Risk Ratings measure the risk posed by a hazard on a 1-100 scale, using historical conditions and projected scenarios through 2050. Climate change has complex, interacting local and large-scale effects that impact everyone on Earth, and a low risk rating does not mean no exposure to impacts from that hazard. See how we measure risk.

Median Climate Change Risk Ratings for Texas

Climate Risks for Cities in Texas

Of these top cities in Texas, the city with the highest overall risk is Houston. The city with the lowest overall risk is Laredo.

  • For heat, El Paso has the lowest risk and San Antonio has the highest risk.
  • For precipitation, El Paso has the lowest risk and Houston has the highest risk.
  • For drought, Amarillo has the lowest risk and San Antonio has the highest risk.
  • For fire, Houston has the lowest risk and Lubbock has the highest risk.
  • For flood, San Antonio has the lowest risk and Austin has the highest risk.
Climate Change Risk Ratings for Cities in Texas

Comparing Texas and Other States

Among the lower 48 states, Texas's highest ranking is #4 for heat risk.

Louisiana and Mississippi rank highest for heat risk California and Oregon rank lowest for heat risk

Texas ranks #15 for fire risk.
Highest fire risk: Oklahoma and Wyoming
Lowest fire risk: Maine and Vermont
See our fire ranking methodology.

Texas ranks #10 for drought risk.
Highest drought risk: Nevada and California
Lowest drought risk: Mississippi and Vermont

Texas ranks #36 for storm risk.
Highest storm risk: Rhode Island and New York
Lowest storm risk: Nevada and Arizona

Texas ranks #38 for flood risk.
Highest flood risk: Arizona and West Virginia
Lowest flood risk: Utah and Nevada

Texas Rankings for Climate Change Risk

Heat Risk in Texas with Climate Change

An extremely hot day in Texas depends on your location: 105ºF is extremely hot for Laredo, while 96ºF is considered extremely hot for Corpus Christi. This is based on historical maximum temperatures on the top 2% of days in an average year.

Hot Day Temperatures for Cities in Texas

The frequency of very hot days is increasing. On average, someone in Texas will experience about 43 extremely hot days in 2050.

Number of Hot Days with Climate Change for Texas

Precipitation Risk in Texas with Climate Change

To measure precipitation risk, we look at the amount of precipitation that falls in 48-hour periods exceeding a location-specific threshold, and how many times this happens per year. A precipitation threshold is based on the top 1% of rainiest days per year for a location.

Historically, Houston experienced an average of 2.0 inches of rain about 10 times per year. In 2050, it is projected to experience an average of 1.9 inches of rain about 11 times per year.

Historically, El Paso experienced an average of 0.5 inches of rain about 9 times per year. In 2050, it is projected to experience an average of 0.5 inches of rain about 9 times per year.

Extreme Precipitation Events and Amounts for Texas

Fire Risk in Texas with Climate Change

Locally, fire risk depends on proximity to vegetation, the type of vegetations and other landcover in the area, and topography. On a given day, fire risk is greatly increased in the presence of a red flag warning, when heat, low humidity, and strong winds converge.

Landcover and Fire Risk for Texas

Drought Risk in Texas with Climate Change

Drought risk is based on water stress, which is a projection of how much of the water supply will be taken up by human demand.

In the figure, the blue bars represent the available water every 10 years from 2020-2060, and the orange bars represent demand. The drought risk rating is based on the ratio of supply to demand and the projected change in this ratio. Lower supply and higher demand correspond to a higher score.

Drought Risk and Water Supply and Demand with Climate Change for Texas

Flood Risk in Texas with Climate Change

Coastal flood hazards include storm surge, when strong winds push water to shore, and rising sea levels due to climate change. The rate of sea level rise varies along the coast. Rising seas contribute to greater instances and spread of high-tide flooding, when high tides inundate land, and greater potential storm surge depths.

Coastal Flood Risk with Climate Change for Texas

How can we prevent climate change and protect our homes and communities?

Mitigating climate change—by eliminating our emissions into the atmosphere and reducing our strain on the environment—and adapting to our changing planet are both vital to our well-being.

Understand Risks

Check your address and get a free report describing risks to your property and in your area.

Your level of risk depends on your city's capacity to adapt. Look up information on your city's characteristics and how they relate to preparedness for climate change: ND-GAIN Urban Adaptation Assessment.

Protect Homes and Communities

Check our free report for tips on protecting your home from hazards.

Green infrastructure is a category of nature-based solutions to increasing precipitation. Find resources for individuals and municipalities through the EPA's Soak Up the Rain initiative.

Planting trees and vegetation helps reduce extreme heat in urban environments. Cool Pavements can also help urban heat islands. Search the Heat Island Community Actions Database to see what some municipalities have been doing to reduce extreme heat risk.

Read more about building resilience for communities: U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit.

Use the Common Cause tool to find your representatives—federal to local—how to contact them, and information about political contributions and bills they have introduced.

Find Balance

Change is necessary–and possible–across the globe and in every part of our society. Learn more with Project Drawdown's introduction to climate solutions.

Estimate your home's carbon footprint with the CoolClimate Calculator. Or, estimate the carbon footprint of your business.