Top Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation, Flood

People in Florida will experience especially increased risks from heat, precipitation, and flood due to climate change over the next 30 years. These risks, through 2050 and beyond, may change depending on how much we reduce emissions in the near future.

ClimateCheck Risk Ratings measure the risk posed by a hazard on a 1-100 scale, using historical conditions and projected scenarios through 2050. Climate change has complex, interacting local and large-scale effects that impact everyone on Earth, and a low risk rating does not mean no exposure to impacts from that hazard. See how we measure risk.

• For heat, Jacksonville has the lowest risk and Cape Coral has the highest risk.
• For precipitation, Fort Lauderdale has the lowest risk and Tampa has the highest risk.
• For drought, Tallahassee has the lowest risk and Cape Coral has the highest risk.
• For fire, Miami has the lowest risk and Gainesville has the highest risk.
• For flood, Jacksonville has the lowest risk and Cape Coral has the highest risk.

Louisiana and Mississippi rank highest for heat risk California and Oregon rank lowest for heat risk

Florida ranks #24 for fire risk.
Highest fire risk: Oklahoma and Wyoming
Lowest fire risk: Maine and Vermont
See our fire ranking methodology.

Florida ranks #19 for drought risk.
Highest drought risk: Nevada and California
Lowest drought risk: Mississippi and Vermont


Florida ranks #33 for storm risk.
Highest storm risk: Rhode Island and New York
Lowest storm risk: Nevada and Arizona


Florida ranks #4 for flood risk.
Highest flood risk: Arizona and West Virginia
Lowest flood risk: Utah and Nevada


To measure precipitation risk, we look at the amount of precipitation that falls in 48-hour periods exceeding a location-specific threshold, and how many times this happens per year. A precipitation threshold is based on the top 1% of rainiest days per year for a location.

Historically, Tampa experienced an average of 2.0 inches of rain about 10 times per year. In 2050, it is projected to experience an average of 1.9 inches of rain about 12 times per year.

Historically, Fort Lauderdale experienced an average of 1.9 inches of rain about 11 times per year. In 2050, it is projected to experience an average of 1.8 inches of rain about 11 times per year.

Coastal flood hazards include storm surge, when strong winds push water to shore, and rising sea levels due to climate change. The rate of sea level rise varies along the coast. Rising seas contribute to greater instances and spread of high-tide flooding, when high tides inundate land, and greater potential storm surge depths.



Locally, fire risk depends on proximity to vegetation, the type of vegetations and other landcover in the area, and topography. On a given day, fire risk is greatly increased in the presence of a red flag warning, when heat, low humidity, and strong winds converge.



Drought risk is based on water stress, which is a projection of how much of the water supply will be taken up by human demand.

In the figure, the blue bars represent the available water every 10 years from 2020-2060, and the orange bars represent demand. The drought risk rating is based on the ratio of supply to demand and the projected change in this ratio. Lower supply and higher demand correspond to a higher score.