Top Climate Change Risks: Precipitation, Heat, Fire

People in Minnesota will experience especially increased risks from precipitation, heat, and fire due to climate change over the next 30 years. These risks, through 2050 and beyond, may change depending on how much we reduce emissions in the near future.

ClimateCheck Risk Ratings measure the risk posed by a hazard on a 1-100 scale, using historical conditions and projected scenarios through 2050. Climate change has complex, interacting local and large-scale effects that impact everyone on Earth, and a low risk rating does not mean no exposure to impacts from that hazard. See how we measure risk.

• For heat, Duluth has the lowest risk and Rochester has the highest risk.
• For precipitation, Moorhead has the lowest risk and Duluth has the highest risk.
• For drought, Moorhead has the lowest risk and Rochester has the highest risk.
• For fire, Duluth has the lowest risk and St. Cloud has the highest risk.
• For flood, Moorhead has the lowest risk and Rochester has the highest risk.

Arizona and West Virginia rank highest for flood risk Utah and Nevada rank lowest for flood risk

Minnesota ranks #26 for fire risk.
Highest fire risk: Oklahoma and Wyoming
Lowest fire risk: Maine and Vermont
See our fire ranking methodology.

Minnesota ranks #25 for drought risk.
Highest drought risk: Nevada and California
Lowest drought risk: Mississippi and Vermont


Minnesota ranks #35 for heat risk.
Highest heat risk: Louisiana and Mississippi
Lowest heat risk: California and Oregon


Minnesota ranks #32 for storm risk.
Highest storm risk: Rhode Island and New York
Lowest storm risk: Nevada and Arizona


To measure precipitation risk, we look at the amount of precipitation that falls in 48-hour periods exceeding a location-specific threshold, and how many times this happens per year. A precipitation threshold is based on the top 1% of rainiest days per year for a location.

Historically, Duluth experienced an average of 1.2 inches of rain about 10 times per year. In 2050, it is projected to experience an average of 1.1 inches of rain about 12 times per year.

Historically, Moorhead experienced an average of 1.0 inches of rain about 9 times per year. In 2050, it is projected to experience an average of 1.0 inches of rain about 11 times per year.

Locally, fire risk depends on proximity to vegetation, the type of vegetations and other landcover in the area, and topography. On a given day, fire risk is greatly increased in the presence of a red flag warning, when heat, low humidity, and strong winds converge.



Drought risk is based on water stress, which is a projection of how much of the water supply will be taken up by human demand.

In the figure, the blue bars represent the available water every 10 years from 2020-2060, and the orange bars represent demand. The drought risk rating is based on the ratio of supply to demand and the projected change in this ratio. Lower supply and higher demand correspond to a higher score.