Top Climate Change Risks: Precipitation, Heat, Flood

People in Kentucky will experience especially increased risks from precipitation, heat, and flood due to climate change over the next 30 years. These risks, through 2050 and beyond, may change depending on how much we reduce emissions in the near future.

ClimateCheck Risk Ratings measure the risk posed by a hazard on a 1-100 scale, using historical conditions and projected scenarios through 2050. Climate change has complex, interacting local and large-scale effects that impact everyone on Earth, and a low risk rating does not mean no exposure to impacts from that hazard. See how we measure risk.

• For heat, Covington has the lowest risk and Owensboro has the highest risk.
• For precipitation, Owensboro has the lowest risk and Covington has the highest risk.
• For drought, Covington has the lowest risk and Bowling Green has the highest risk.
• For fire, Louisville has the lowest risk and Bowling Green has the highest risk.
• For flood, Bowling Green has the lowest risk and Covington has the highest risk.

Rhode Island and New York rank highest for storm risk Nevada and Arizona rank lowest for storm risk

Kentucky ranks #32 for fire risk.
Highest fire risk: Oklahoma and Wyoming
Lowest fire risk: Maine and Vermont
See our fire ranking methodology.

Kentucky ranks #37 for drought risk.
Highest drought risk: Nevada and California
Lowest drought risk: Mississippi and Vermont


Kentucky ranks #11 for heat risk.
Highest heat risk: Louisiana and Mississippi
Lowest heat risk: California and Oregon


Kentucky ranks #20 for flood risk.
Highest flood risk: Arizona and West Virginia
Lowest flood risk: Utah and Nevada


To measure precipitation risk, we look at the amount of precipitation that falls in 48-hour periods exceeding a location-specific threshold, and how many times this happens per year. A precipitation threshold is based on the top 1% of rainiest days per year for a location.

Historically, Covington experienced an average of 1.4 inches of rain about 10 times per year. In 2050, it is projected to experience an average of 1.4 inches of rain about 13 times per year.

Historically, Owensboro experienced an average of 1.6 inches of rain about 11 times per year. In 2050, it is projected to experience an average of 1.5 inches of rain about 14 times per year.

Drought risk is based on water stress, which is a projection of how much of the water supply will be taken up by human demand.

In the figure, the blue bars represent the available water every 10 years from 2020-2060, and the orange bars represent demand. The drought risk rating is based on the ratio of supply to demand and the projected change in this ratio. Lower supply and higher demand correspond to a higher score.