Top Climate Change Risks: Drought, Fire, Heat

People in California will experience especially increased risks from drought, fire, and heat due to climate change over the next 30 years. These risks, through 2050 and beyond, may change depending on how much we reduce emissions in the near future.

ClimateCheck Risk Ratings measure the risk posed by a hazard on a 1-100 scale, using historical conditions and projected scenarios through 2050. Climate change has complex, interacting local and large-scale effects that impact everyone on Earth, and a low risk rating does not mean no exposure to impacts from that hazard. See how we measure risk.

• For heat, San Francisco has the lowest risk and Riverside has the highest risk.
• For precipitation, Bakersfield has the lowest risk and Sacramento has the highest risk.
• For drought, Sacramento has the lowest risk and San Diego has the highest risk.
• For fire, San Francisco has the lowest risk and Riverside has the highest risk.
• For flood, San Francisco has the lowest risk and Riverside has the highest risk.

Nevada ranks highest for drought risk Mississippi and Vermont rank lowest for drought risk

California ranks #17 for fire risk.
Highest fire risk: Oklahoma and Wyoming
Lowest fire risk: Maine and Vermont
See our fire ranking methodology.

California ranks #47 for heat risk.
Highest heat risk: Louisiana and Mississippi


California ranks #40 for storm risk.
Highest storm risk: Rhode Island and New York
Lowest storm risk: Nevada and Arizona


California ranks #39 for flood risk.
Highest flood risk: Arizona and West Virginia
Lowest flood risk: Utah and Nevada


Drought risk is based on water stress, which is a projection of how much of the water supply will be taken up by human demand.

In the figure, the blue bars represent the available water every 10 years from 2020-2060, and the orange bars represent demand. The drought risk rating is based on the ratio of supply to demand and the projected change in this ratio. Lower supply and higher demand correspond to a higher score.



Locally, fire risk depends on proximity to vegetation, the type of vegetations and other landcover in the area, and topography. On a given day, fire risk is greatly increased in the presence of a red flag warning, when heat, low humidity, and strong winds converge.



To measure precipitation risk, we look at the amount of precipitation that falls in 48-hour periods exceeding a location-specific threshold, and how many times this happens per year. A precipitation threshold is based on the top 1% of rainiest days per year for a location.

Historically, Sacramento experienced an average of 1.1 inches of rain about 10 times per year. In 2050, it is projected to experience an average of 1.1 inches of rain about 11 times per year.

Historically, Bakersfield experienced an average of 0.4 inches of rain about 9 times per year. In 2050, it is projected to experience an average of 0.4 inches of rain about 9 times per year.