Top Climate Change Risks: Heat, Drought, Fire

People in Idaho will experience especially increased risks from heat, drought, and fire due to climate change over the next 30 years. These risks, through 2050 and beyond, may change depending on how much we reduce emissions in the near future.

ClimateCheck Risk Ratings measure the risk posed by a hazard on a 1-100 scale, using historical conditions and projected scenarios through 2050. Climate change has complex, interacting local and large-scale effects that impact everyone on Earth, and a low risk rating does not mean no exposure to impacts from that hazard. See how we measure risk.

• For heat, Coeur d'Alene has the lowest risk and Caldwell has the highest risk.
• For precipitation, Rexburg has the lowest risk and Moscow has the highest risk.
• For drought, Coeur d'Alene has the lowest risk and Rexburg has the highest risk.
• For fire, Coeur d'Alene has the lowest risk and Caldwell has the highest risk.
• For flood, Nampa has the lowest risk and Rexburg has the highest risk.

Nevada and California rank highest for drought risk Mississippi and Vermont rank lowest for drought risk

Idaho ranks #12 for fire risk.
Highest fire risk: Oklahoma and Wyoming
Lowest fire risk: Maine and Vermont
See our fire ranking methodology.

Idaho ranks #37 for heat risk.
Highest heat risk: Louisiana and Mississippi
Lowest heat risk: California and Oregon


Idaho ranks #39 for storm risk.
Highest storm risk: Rhode Island and New York
Lowest storm risk: Nevada and Arizona


Idaho ranks #22 for flood risk.
Highest flood risk: Arizona and West Virginia
Lowest flood risk: Utah and Nevada


Drought risk is based on water stress, which is a projection of how much of the water supply will be taken up by human demand.

In the figure, the blue bars represent the available water every 10 years from 2020-2060, and the orange bars represent demand. The drought risk rating is based on the ratio of supply to demand and the projected change in this ratio. Lower supply and higher demand correspond to a higher score.



Locally, fire risk depends on proximity to vegetation, the type of vegetations and other landcover in the area, and topography. On a given day, fire risk is greatly increased in the presence of a red flag warning, when heat, low humidity, and strong winds converge.



To measure precipitation risk, we look at the amount of precipitation that falls in 48-hour periods exceeding a location-specific threshold, and how many times this happens per year. A precipitation threshold is based on the top 1% of rainiest days per year for a location.

Historically, Moscow experienced an average of 0.9 inches of rain about 12 times per year. In 2050, it is projected to experience an average of 0.8 inches of rain about 14 times per year.

Historically, Rexburg experienced an average of 0.4 inches of rain about 11 times per year. In 2050, it is projected to experience an average of 0.4 inches of rain about 12 times per year.