Top Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation, Drought

People in North Carolina will experience especially increased risks from heat, precipitation, and drought due to climate change over the next 30 years. These risks, through 2050 and beyond, may change depending on how much we reduce emissions in the near future.

ClimateCheck Risk Ratings measure the risk posed by a hazard on a 1-100 scale, using historical conditions and projected scenarios through 2050. Climate change has complex, interacting local and large-scale effects that impact everyone on Earth, and a low risk rating does not mean no exposure to impacts from that hazard. See how we measure risk.

• For heat, Asheville has the lowest risk and Charlotte has the highest risk.
• For precipitation, Wilmington has the lowest risk and Asheville has the highest risk.
• For drought, Greenville has the lowest risk and Concord has the highest risk.
• For fire, Charlotte has the lowest risk and Wilmington has the highest risk.
• For flood, Greenville has the lowest risk and Asheville has the highest risk.

Nevada and California rank highest for drought risk Mississippi and Vermont rank lowest for drought risk

North Carolina ranks #29 for fire risk.
Highest fire risk: Oklahoma and Wyoming
Lowest fire risk: Maine and Vermont
See our fire ranking methodology.

North Carolina ranks #9 for heat risk.
Highest heat risk: Louisiana and Mississippi
Lowest heat risk: California and Oregon


North Carolina ranks #13 for storm risk.
Highest storm risk: Rhode Island and New York
Lowest storm risk: Nevada and Arizona


North Carolina ranks #35 for flood risk.
Highest flood risk: Arizona and West Virginia
Lowest flood risk: Utah and Nevada


To measure precipitation risk, we look at the amount of precipitation that falls in 48-hour periods exceeding a location-specific threshold, and how many times this happens per year. A precipitation threshold is based on the top 1% of rainiest days per year for a location.

Historically, Asheville experienced an average of 1.6 inches of rain about 10 times per year. In 2050, it is projected to experience an average of 1.5 inches of rain about 13 times per year.

Historically, Wilmington experienced an average of 2.2 inches of rain about 10 times per year. In 2050, it is projected to experience an average of 2.0 inches of rain about 12 times per year.

Drought risk is based on water stress, which is a projection of how much of the water supply will be taken up by human demand.

In the figure, the blue bars represent the available water every 10 years from 2020-2060, and the orange bars represent demand. The drought risk rating is based on the ratio of supply to demand and the projected change in this ratio. Lower supply and higher demand correspond to a higher score.



Coastal flood hazards include storm surge, when strong winds push water to shore, and rising sea levels due to climate change. The rate of sea level rise varies along the coast. Rising seas contribute to greater instances and spread of high-tide flooding, when high tides inundate land, and greater potential storm surge depths.