Top Climate Change Risks: Heat, Flood, Fire

People in Arizona will experience especially increased risks from heat, flood, and fire due to climate change over the next 30 years. These risks, through 2050 and beyond, may change depending on how much we reduce emissions in the near future.

ClimateCheck Risk Ratings measure the risk posed by a hazard on a 1-100 scale, using historical conditions and projected scenarios through 2050. Climate change has complex, interacting local and large-scale effects that impact everyone on Earth, and a low risk rating does not mean no exposure to impacts from that hazard. See how we measure risk.

• For heat, Flagstaff has the lowest risk and Tucson has the highest risk.
• For precipitation, Yuma has the lowest risk and Prescott has the highest risk.
• For drought, Sierra Vista has the lowest risk and Yuma has the highest risk.
• For fire, Tucson has the lowest risk and Sierra Vista has the highest risk.
• For flood, Casa Grande has the lowest risk and Phoenix has the highest risk.

Utah and Nevada rank lowest for flood risk

Arizona ranks #3 for fire risk.
Highest fire risk: Oklahoma and Wyoming
Lowest fire risk: Maine and Vermont
See our fire ranking methodology.

Arizona ranks #7 for drought risk.
Highest drought risk: Nevada and California
Lowest drought risk: Mississippi and Vermont


Arizona ranks #12 for heat risk.
Highest heat risk: Louisiana and Mississippi
Lowest heat risk: California and Oregon


Arizona ranks #46 for storm risk.
Highest storm risk: Rhode Island and New York
Lowest storm risk: Nevada


Drought risk is based on water stress, which is a projection of how much of the water supply will be taken up by human demand.

In the figure, the blue bars represent the available water every 10 years from 2020-2060, and the orange bars represent demand. The drought risk rating is based on the ratio of supply to demand and the projected change in this ratio. Lower supply and higher demand correspond to a higher score.



To measure precipitation risk, we look at the amount of precipitation that falls in 48-hour periods exceeding a location-specific threshold, and how many times this happens per year. A precipitation threshold is based on the top 1% of rainiest days per year for a location.

Historically, Prescott experienced an average of 0.9 inches of rain about 9 times per year. In 2050, it is projected to experience an average of 0.8 inches of rain about 10 times per year.

Historically, Yuma experienced an average of 0.3 inches of rain about 8 times per year. In 2050, it is projected to experience an average of 0.2 inches of rain about 7 times per year.