Arizona
Top Climate Change Risks: Drought, Heat

Learn how climate change is affecting people in Arizona.
Then, check your local risk for heat, storm, fire, drought, and flood through 2050.

Typical Risks for Someone in Arizona

Compared to people in the United States, people in Arizona will experience especially increased risks from drought and heat due to climate change over the next 30 years.

The ClimateCheck Risk Rating is a 1-100 score that measures historical risk and increased exposure to risk with climate change, compared to everywhere in the U.S. (lower 48 states). A rating of 100 means risk is the highest for the U.S., while 1 means the risk is the lowest of anywhere in the U.S. Even with a risk rating of 1, climate change has both localized and large-scale effects that impact everyone on Earth.
See how we measure risk.

For fire, the bar estimates the middle 50% of buildings and middle 50% of land area. For heat, drought, and storm, the bars represent the middle 50% of the population.

Climate Risks for Cities in Arizona

Of the top cities in Arizona, the city with the highest overall risk is Phoenix. The city with the lowest overall risk is Prescott.

For heat, Sierra Vista has the lowest risk and Phoenix has the highest risk.

For storm, Yuma has the lowest risk and Prescott has the highest risk.

For drought, Sierra Vista has the lowest risk and Yuma has the highest risk.

For fire, Phoenix has the lowest risk and Prescott has the highest risk.

For flood, Phoenix has the lowest risk and Prescott has the highest risk.

Comparing Arizona and Other States

Among the lower 48 states, Arizona's highest ranking is #1 for drought risk.
Mississippi and Illinois rank lowest for drought risk

Arizona ranks #22 for fire risk.
Highest fire risk: Utah and Kansas
Lowest fire risk: District Of Columbia and Rhode Island
See our fire ranking methodology.

Arizona ranks #8 for heat risk.
Highest heat risk: Florida and Louisiana
Lowest heat risk: Washington and North Dakota


Arizona ranks #46 for storm risk.
Highest storm risk: New Hampshire and Vermont
Lowest storm risk: Nevada and New Mexico

Drought Risk in Arizona with Climate Change

Drought risk is based on water stress, which is a projection of how much of the water supply will be taken up by human demand.

In the figure, the blue bars represent the available water every 10 years from 2020-2060, and the orange bars represent demand. The drought risk rating is based on the ratio of supply to demand and the projected change in this ratio. Lower supply and higher demand correspond to a higher score.

Heat Risk in Arizona with Climate Change

An extremely hot day in Arizona depends on your location: 114ºF is extremely hot for Lake Havasu City, while 87ºF is considered extremely hot for Flagstaff. This is based on historical maximum temperatures on the top 2% of days in an average year.

The frequency of very hot days is increasing. On average, someone in Arizona will experience about 43 extremely hot days in 2050.
A typical person in the U.S. will experience about 43 extremely hot days in 2050.

How Can We Adapt to a Changing Climate?



Mitigating climate change—by eliminating our emissions into the atmosphere and reducing our strain on the environment—and adapting to our changing planet are both vital to our well-being.

Understand Risks


Check your address and get a free report describing risks to your property and in your area.

Your level of risk depends on your city's capacity to adapt. Look up information on your city's characteristics and how they relate to preparedness for climate change: ND-GAIN Urban Adaptation Assessment.

Protect Homes and Communities


Check our free report for tips on protecting your home from hazards.

Green infrastructure is a category of nature-based solutions increasing precipitation. Find resources for individuals and municipalities through the EPA's Soak Up the Rain initiative.

Planting trees and vegetation helps reduce extreme heat in urban environments. Cool Pavements can also help urban heat islands. Search the Heat Island Community Actions Database to see what some municipalities have been doing to reduce extreme heat risk.

Read more about building resilience for communities: U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit.

Use the Common Cause tool to find your representatives (federal to local), how to contact them, and information about political contributions and bills they have introduced.

Find Balance


Change is necessary–and possible–across the globe and in every part of our society. Learn more with Project Drawdown's introduction to climate solutions.

Estimate your home's carbon footprint with the CoolClimate Calculator. Or, estimate the carbon footprint of your business.