Top Climate Change Risks: Precipitation, Heat, Flood

People in Vermont will experience especially increased risks from precipitation, heat, and flood due to climate change over the next 30 years. These risks, through 2050 and beyond, may change depending on how much we reduce emissions in the near future.

ClimateCheck Risk Ratings measure the risk posed by a hazard on a 1-100 scale, using historical conditions and projected scenarios through 2050. Climate change has complex, interacting local and large-scale effects that impact everyone on Earth, and a low risk rating does not mean no exposure to impacts from that hazard. See how we measure risk.

• For heat, Newport has the lowest risk and Rutland has the highest risk.
• For precipitation, Vergennes has the lowest risk and Barre has the highest risk.
• For drought, Newport has the lowest risk and Brattleboro has the highest risk.
• For fire, Newport has the lowest risk and Vergennes has the highest risk.
• For flood, Burlington has the lowest risk and Montpelier has the highest risk.

Arizona and West Virginia rank highest for flood risk Utah and Nevada rank lowest for flood risk

Vermont ranks #46 for fire risk.
Highest fire risk: Oklahoma and Wyoming
Lowest fire risk: Maine
See our fire ranking methodology.

Vermont ranks #46 for drought risk.
Highest drought risk: Nevada and California
Lowest drought risk: Mississippi


Vermont ranks #42 for heat risk.
Highest heat risk: Louisiana and Mississippi
Lowest heat risk: California and Oregon


Vermont ranks #27 for storm risk.
Highest storm risk: Rhode Island and New York
Lowest storm risk: Nevada and Arizona


To measure precipitation risk, we look at the amount of precipitation that falls in 48-hour periods exceeding a location-specific threshold, and how many times this happens per year. A precipitation threshold is based on the top 1% of rainiest days per year for a location.

Historically, Barre experienced an average of 1.3 inches of rain about 10 times per year. In 2050, it is projected to experience an average of 1.2 inches of rain about 14 times per year.

Historically, Vergennes experienced an average of 1.0 inches of rain about 11 times per year. In 2050, it is projected to experience an average of 0.9 inches of rain about 15 times per year.

Drought risk is based on water stress, which is a projection of how much of the water supply will be taken up by human demand.

In the figure, the blue bars represent the available water every 10 years from 2020-2060, and the orange bars represent demand. The drought risk rating is based on the ratio of supply to demand and the projected change in this ratio. Lower supply and higher demand correspond to a higher score.