People in Phoenix, AZ are especially likely to experience increased risks from heat, flood, and drought.

Risks from extreme heat, drought, flood, and fire are all increasing for Phoenix. Maricopa county, home to Phoenix, is one of six counties in Arizona at risk of becoming uninhabitable to humans in the next 20 to 40 years.

More than 150 people died in 2016, 2017 and 2018 from the effects of heat waves in Phoenix. A worst-case heat wave scenario could hit the phoenix area with 122 degree temperatures and thousands of deaths. Heat and drought are also causing disruption in the region’s important agriculture industry, which contributes more than 23 billion dollars annually to the state economy. Important staple crops such as wheat, corn, cotton, and other produce have been impacted in recent years.

The infrastructure of Phoenix is making the effects of extreme heat worse by reducing the city’s capacity to absorb heat. The urban heat island effect causes much higher temperatures in areas that have been over-developed with pavement, buildings, and other heat-retaining surfaces. Phoenix's sprawling 517 mile perimeter makes this effect particularly prevalent.

In a typical year around 1990, people in Phoenix, AZ experienced about 7 days above 110.0ºF in a year. By 2050, people in Phoenix are projected to experience an average of about 47 days per year over 110.0ºF.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of heat waves, even in places with cooler average temperatures. See more information on heat risk. Everyone can take steps to reduce their risks from extreme heat.

Of 788 census tracts in Phoenix, AZ, there are 755 where more than half of buildings have significant risk from surface (pluvial) flooding and riverine (fluvial) flooding. Property owners can check a specific address for flood risk including FEMA flood zone, then take steps to reduce their vulnerability to flooding damage.

Climate change is increasing inland and coastal flooding risk due to sea level rise and increasing chances of extreme precipitation. See more information on flooding risk.

The Lower Salt watershed, which contains Phoenix, AZ, has experienced 1039 weeks (87% of weeks) since 2000 with some of its area in drought of any level, and 228 weeks (19% of weeks) since 2000 with some of its area in Extreme or Exceptional drought. Source: National Drought Monitor.

Climate change is increasing the risk of drought. Water stress (the ratio of water demand to supply) depends on how water utilities source water and their plans to adapt to climate change. Property owners can also take steps to reduce their risks from drought.

Of 788 census tracts in Phoenix, AZ, there are 389 where more than a quarter of buildings have significant fire risk, and 305 where more than half of buildings have significant fire risk. Property owners can take steps to mitigate their risks from wildfires.

Fire risk depends on proximity to vegation: densely developed urban areas have a much lower risk of burning than areas adjacent to wildland. Climate change increases risks from wildfire by creating hotter, drier conditions for fires to spread. ClimateCheck ratings of fire risk are based on projected weather conditions and U.S. Forest Service models simulating fire behavior.

A downpour for Phoenix, AZ is a two-day rainfall total over 0.3 inches. Around 1990, about 62.0% of precipitation fell during these downpours. In 2050, this is projected to be about 65.0%. The annual precipitation in Phoenix, AZ is projected to remain about 8.4".

Extreme precipitation in any form can pose significant risks. Climate change is increasing the potential for extreme rainfall or snowfall because warmer air can hold more water vapor. See more information on storm risk. Property owners can take steps to reduce their risks from extreme precipitation.