People in Tampa, FL are especially likely to experience increased risks from heat, precipitation, and flood.

The Tampa Bay area is at a severe risk of disruption from sea level rise. Forecasts for 2040 indicate that much of the area will be three feet underwater. Rising seas will disrupt Tampa’s thriving economy, real estate and financial industries and two major military bases in the area.

Sea level rise and warming temperatures in the Tampa Bay area is expected to make storms and storm surge more dangerous and destructive. The county estimated that 1,400 homes suffered flood damage in 2020. Tampa Bay hasn’t directly been hit by a hurricane since 1921, but a worst-case category 5 hurricane scenario could destroy half a million buildings and displace millions.

Heat risk is also a major threat in the Tampa Bay area. Many previous heat advisories have caused residents to consider the growing impacts of heat on tourism, productivity, and mortality rates.

In a typical year around 1990, people in Tampa, FL experienced about 7 days above 94.0ºF in a year. By 2050, people in Tampa are projected to experience an average of about 86 days per year over 94.0ºF.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of heat waves, even in places with cooler average temperatures. See more information on heat risk. Everyone can take steps to reduce their risks from extreme heat.

A downpour for Tampa, FL is a two-day rainfall total over 1.2 inches. Around 1990, about 45.0% of precipitation fell during these downpours. In 2050, this is projected to be about 47.0%. The annual precipitation in Tampa, FL is projected to increase from about 49.5" to about 51.9".

Extreme precipitation in any form can pose significant risks. Climate change is increasing the potential for extreme rainfall or snowfall because warmer air can hold more water vapor. See more information on storm risk. Property owners can take steps to reduce their risks from extreme precipitation.

Of 269 census tracts in Tampa, FL, there are 108 where more than half of buildings have significant risk from storm surge, high tide flooding, surface (pluvial) flooding, and riverine (fluvial) flooding. Property owners can check a specific address for flood risk including FEMA flood zone, then take steps to reduce their vulnerability to flooding damage.

Climate change is increasing inland and coastal flooding risk due to sea level rise and increasing chances of extreme precipitation. See more information on flooding risk.

Of 269 census tracts in Tampa, FL, there are 210 where more than a quarter of buildings have significant fire risk, and 198 where more than half of buildings have significant fire risk. Property owners can take steps to mitigate their risks from wildfires.

Fire risk depends on proximity to vegation: densely developed urban areas have a much lower risk of burning than areas adjacent to wildland. Climate change increases risks from wildfire by creating hotter, drier conditions for fires to spread. ClimateCheck ratings of fire risk are based on projected weather conditions and U.S. Forest Service models simulating fire behavior.

The Hillsborough watershed, which contains Tampa, FL, has experienced 432 weeks (36% of weeks) since 2000 with some of its area in drought of any level, and 60 weeks (5% of weeks) since 2000 with some of its area in Extreme or Exceptional drought. Source: National Drought Monitor.

Climate change is increasing the risk of drought. Water stress (the ratio of water demand to supply) depends on how water utilities source water and their plans to adapt to climate change. Property owners can also take steps to reduce their risks from drought.