Tampa, FLTop Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation, Flood

Risk Snapshot

Climate Change Hazard Ratings for Tampa, FL

Ratings represent risk relative to North America. 100 is the highest risk for the hazard and 1 is the lowest, but does not indicate no risk. Flood and fire are rated based on the buildings in Tampa exposed to these hazards. See hazard sections below and check your address for details.

People in Tampa, FL are especially likely to experience increased risks from heat, precipitation, and flood.

The Tampa Bay area is at a severe risk of disruption from sea level rise. Forecasts for 2040 indicate that much of the area will be three feet underwater. Rising seas will disrupt Tampa’s thriving economy, real estate and financial industries and two major military bases in the area.

Sea level rise and warming temperatures in the Tampa Bay area is expected to make storms and storm surge more dangerous and destructive. The county estimated that 1,400 homes suffered flood damage in 2020. Tampa Bay hasn’t directly been hit by a hurricane since 1921, but a worst-case category 5 hurricane scenario could destroy half a million buildings and displace millions.

Heat risk is also a major threat in the Tampa Bay area. Many previous heat advisories have caused residents to consider the growing impacts of heat on tourism, productivity, and mortality rates.

Heat risk in Tampa, FL

The number of the hottest days in Tampa is projected to keep increasing.

In a typical year around 1990, people in Tampa, FL experienced about 7 days above 94.0ºF in a year. By 2050, people in Tampa are projected to experience an average of about 86 days per year over 94.0ºF.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of heat waves, even in places with cooler average temperatures. See more information on heat risk. Everyone can take steps to reduce their risks from extreme heat.

Precipitation risk in Tampa, FL

The share of precipitation during the biggest downpours in Tampa is projected to increase.

A downpour for Tampa, FL is a two-day rainfall total over 1.2 inches. Around 1990, about 45.0% of precipitation fell during these downpours. In 2050, this is projected to be about 47.0%. The annual precipitation in Tampa, FL is projected to increase from about 49.5" to about 51.9".

Extreme precipitation in any form can pose significant risks. Climate change is increasing the potential for extreme rainfall or snowfall because warmer air can hold more water vapor. See more information on storm risk. Property owners can take steps to reduce their risks from extreme precipitation.

Flood risk in Tampa, FL

Buildings at risk in Tampa average about a 63% chance of a flood about 2.2 feet deep over 30 years.

Of 269 census tracts in Tampa, FL, there are 108 where more than half of buildings have significant risk from storm surge, high tide flooding, surface (pluvial) flooding, and riverine (fluvial) flooding. Property owners can check a specific address for flood risk including FEMA flood zone, then take steps to reduce their vulnerability to flooding damage.

Climate change is increasing inland and coastal flooding risk due to sea level rise and increasing chances of extreme precipitation. See more information on flooding risk.

Fire risk in Tampa, FL

The risk on the most dangerous fire weather days in Tampa is low. The number of these days per year is expected to increase through 2050.

Of 269 census tracts in Tampa, FL, there are 210 where more than a quarter of buildings have significant fire risk, and 198 where more than half of buildings have significant fire risk. Property owners can take steps to mitigate their risks from wildfires.

Fire risk depends on proximity to vegation: densely developed urban areas have a much lower risk of burning than areas adjacent to wildland. Climate change increases risks from wildfire by creating hotter, drier conditions for fires to spread. ClimateCheck ratings of fire risk are based on projected weather conditions and U.S. Forest Service models simulating fire behavior.

Drought risk in Tampa, FL

The average water stress in Tampa is projected to be about the same around 2050 as around 2015.

The Hillsborough watershed, which contains Tampa, FL, has experienced 432 weeks (36% of weeks) since 2000 with some of its area in drought of any level, and 60 weeks (5% of weeks) since 2000 with some of its area in Extreme or Exceptional drought. Source: National Drought Monitor.

Climate change is increasing the risk of drought. Water stress (the ratio of water demand to supply) depends on how water utilities source water and their plans to adapt to climate change. Property owners can also take steps to reduce their risks from drought.

How can we limit climate change and live in a transforming world?

The projections on this page describe a future that we still have a chance to avoid. To keep average global warming below 1.5ºC—the goal agreed on in the 2015 Paris Climate Accords—we need to act rapidly to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Understand Risks

The risks presented on this page reflect modeled averages for Tampa, FL under one projected emissions scenario and can vary for individual properties. To find out more, check a specific address and request a report describing risks to your property and in your area.

Reduce Emissions

The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report states: “If global emissions continue at current rates, the remaining carbon budget for keeping warming to 1.5ºC will likely be exhausted before 2030.” This remaining carbon budget is about the same amount as total global emissions 2010-2019.

In the United States, the largest share of greenhouse gas emissions comes from transportation (about 30%). Globally the vast majority of transportation-related emissions come from cars and trucks, followed by shipping and air travel, which is growing quickly.

Compared to the rest of the world, the U.S. uses twice the average share of emissions for its buildings (including heating and cooling).

Estimate your emissions with the CoolClimate calculator.

Reducing emissions is necessary and possible across the globe and in every part of our society. Learn more with the Not Too Late project and the Project Drawdown introduction to climate solutions.

Protect Homes and Communities

Check our free report for tips on protecting your home from hazards.

Green infrastructure is a category of nature-based solutions for managing increasing precipitation. Find resources for individuals and municipalities through the EPA Soak Up the Rain initiative.

Planting trees and vegetation helps reduce extreme heat in urban environments. Cool pavements can also help. Search the Heat Island Community Actions Database to see what some municipalities have been doing to reduce extreme heat risk.

Read more about building resilience for communities: U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit

Use the Common Cause tool to find your representatives, how to contact them, and information about political contributions and bills they have introduced.