Jacksonville, FLTop Climate Change Risks: Heat, Precipitation

Risk Snapshot

Climate Change Hazard Ratings for Jacksonville, FL

Ratings represent risk relative to North America. 100 is the highest risk for the hazard and 1 is the lowest, but does not indicate no risk. Flood and fire are rated based on the buildings in Jacksonville exposed to these hazards. See hazard sections below and check your address for details.

People in Jacksonville, FL are especially likely to experience increased risks from heat and precipitation.

Jacksonville faces with the combined threat of flooding, fires, storm damage and heat waves. The city is the most populous in Florida, with more than 900,000 residents.

The St. Johns River running through the downtown of Jacksonville poses a severe threat to the center of the city from floods and sea level rise. Additionally, land along the Eastern Seaboard is sinking slowly, increasing the relative rate of sea level rise in Jacksonville further. Even the areas of Jacksonville that are not directly affected by water-related climate risks could still be harmed by the economic fallout of a damaged downtown area.

Heat risk in Jacksonville, FL

The number of the hottest days in Jacksonville is projected to keep increasing.

In a typical year around 1990, people in Jacksonville, FL experienced about 7 days above 95.2ºF in a year. By 2050, people in Jacksonville are projected to experience an average of about 43 days per year over 95.2ºF.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of heat waves, even in places with cooler average temperatures. See more information on heat risk. Everyone can take steps to reduce their risks from extreme heat.

Precipitation risk in Jacksonville, FL

The share of precipitation during the biggest downpours in Jacksonville is projected to increase.

A downpour for Jacksonville, FL is a two-day rainfall total over 1.2 inches. Around 1990, about 43.0% of precipitation fell during these downpours. In 2050, this is projected to be about 45.0%. The annual precipitation in Jacksonville, FL is projected to increase from about 51.5" to about 52.3".

Extreme precipitation in any form can pose significant risks. Climate change is increasing the potential for extreme rainfall or snowfall because warmer air can hold more water vapor. See more information on storm risk. Property owners can take steps to reduce their risks from extreme precipitation.

Fire risk in Jacksonville, FL

The risk on the most dangerous fire weather days in Jacksonville is moderate. The number of these days per year is expected to increase through 2050.

Of 331 census tracts in Jacksonville, FL, there are 314 where more than a quarter of buildings have significant fire risk, and 310 where more than half of buildings have significant fire risk. Property owners can take steps to mitigate their risks from wildfires.

Fire risk depends on proximity to vegation: densely developed urban areas have a much lower risk of burning than areas adjacent to wildland. Climate change increases risks from wildfire by creating hotter, drier conditions for fires to spread. ClimateCheck ratings of fire risk are based on projected weather conditions and U.S. Forest Service models simulating fire behavior.

Flood risk in Jacksonville, FL

Buildings at risk in Jacksonville average about a 35% chance of a flood about 1.0 feet deep over 30 years.

Of 331 census tracts in Jacksonville, FL, there are 91 where more than half of buildings have significant risk from storm surge, high tide flooding, and surface (pluvial) flooding. Property owners can check a specific address for flood risk including FEMA flood zone, then take steps to reduce their vulnerability to flooding damage.

Climate change is increasing inland and coastal flooding risk due to sea level rise and increasing chances of extreme precipitation. See more information on flooding risk.

Drought risk in Jacksonville, FL

The average water stress in Jacksonville is projected to be about the same around 2050 as around 2015.

The Lower St, Johns watershed, which contains Jacksonville, FL, has experienced 618 weeks (52% of weeks) since 2000 with some of its area in drought of any level, and 102 weeks (8% of weeks) since 2000 with some of its area in Extreme or Exceptional drought. Source: National Drought Monitor.

Climate change is increasing the risk of drought. Water stress (the ratio of water demand to supply) depends on how water utilities source water and their plans to adapt to climate change. Property owners can also take steps to reduce their risks from drought.

How can we limit climate change and live in a transforming world?

The projections on this page describe a future that we still have a chance to avoid. To keep average global warming below 1.5ºC—the goal agreed on in the 2015 Paris Climate Accords—we need to act rapidly to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Understand Risks

The risks presented on this page reflect modeled averages for Jacksonville, FL under one projected emissions scenario and can vary for individual properties. To find out more, check a specific address and request a report describing risks to your property and in your area.

Reduce Emissions

The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report states: “If global emissions continue at current rates, the remaining carbon budget for keeping warming to 1.5ºC will likely be exhausted before 2030.” This remaining carbon budget is about the same amount as total global emissions 2010-2019.

In the United States, the largest share of greenhouse gas emissions comes from transportation (about 30%). Globally the vast majority of transportation-related emissions come from cars and trucks, followed by shipping and air travel, which is growing quickly.

Compared to the rest of the world, the U.S. uses twice the average share of emissions for its buildings (including heating and cooling).

Estimate your emissions with the CoolClimate calculator.

Reducing emissions is necessary and possible across the globe and in every part of our society. Learn more with the Not Too Late project and the Project Drawdown introduction to climate solutions.

Protect Homes and Communities

Check our free report for tips on protecting your home from hazards.

Green infrastructure is a category of nature-based solutions for managing increasing precipitation. Find resources for individuals and municipalities through the EPA Soak Up the Rain initiative.

Planting trees and vegetation helps reduce extreme heat in urban environments. Cool pavements can also help. Search the Heat Island Community Actions Database to see what some municipalities have been doing to reduce extreme heat risk.

Read more about building resilience for communities: U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit

Use the Common Cause tool to find your representatives, how to contact them, and information about political contributions and bills they have introduced.